Sign of the Apocalypse #7: Worldwide Bacon Shortage

Although the worldwide bacon shortage panic button has been hit by the Brits, U.S. pork producers are sounding their own alarms (See USDA’s August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, also uploaded here as a pdf.)

But the news that's creating a big bacon buzz comes from across the pond. Blame droughts in North America and Russia affecting the supply of grain crops that are used to feed the animals.

Grain shortages have led to downsizing herd size – and less bacon for the rest of us.

Here's the Sept. 20 Statement issued by National Pig Association:

A world shortage of pork and bacon next year is now unavoidable, says Britain's National Pig Association. But British supermarkets can protect consumers from shortages and steep price rises if they pay Britain's loss-making pig farmers a fair price, to help them remain in production.

New data shows the European Union pig herd is declining at a significant rate, and this is a trend that is being mirrored around the world. Pig farmers have been plunged into loss by high pig-feed costs, caused by the global failure of maize and soya harvests.

All main European pig-producing countries report shrinking sow herds. Falling numbers in the 12 months to June 2012 have been reported by Denmark (-2.3), Germany (-1.3), Ireland (-6.6), Spain (-2.8), France (-3.2), Italy (-13), Hungary (-5), the Netherlands (-3.6), Austria (-2.8), Poland (-9.6) and Sweden (-7.2).

"British supermarkets know they have to raise the price they pay Britain's pig farmers or risk empty spaces on their shelves next year," said NPA chairman Richard Longthorp. "But competition is so fierce in the high street at present, each is waiting for the other to move first."

In its Save Our Bacon campaign, NPA is asking shoppers to make a point of selecting pork and bacon with the British independent Red Tractor logo, as an increase in demand for British product now may help persuade supermarkets to act before it is too late.

Sainsbury's has increased the price it pays to a few of its pig farmer suppliers and NPA has welcomed this gesture. But it says the major supermarkets need to do much more, if they want to protect their customers from shortages and high prices next year.

British Pig Executive Mick Sloyan warned a private meeting of British and mainland Europe retailers at a Brussels summit yesterday that a fall of only 2 percent in slaughterings next year will cause prices to rise by 10 percent.

NPA believes slaughterings could fall by as much as 10 percent in the second half of next year, which indicates a doubling of the price of European pork and pork products. "If supermarkets act now, they can prevent this happening," says NPA.