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GOP Gerrymanders Its Way To Victory

This is America, right? Every vote counts. Well, thanks to the magic of gerrymandering, it turns out some votes count more than others.

Gerrymandering is the process of drawing political boundaries to favor one's own party. Every 10 years, political redistricting occurs - new boundaries are drawn. Within most states, the process is regulated by the state legislature and the governor. In 2010, Republicans scored sweeping victories in many states leaving the GOP in control of not only state legislatures, but also governorships.

When a party controls both the state legislature and the governorship, it pretty much dictates redistricting within that state. The party then works the system to its advantage by clustering as many voters of the opposing party into as few districts as possible, leaving the bulk of the districts safely under its control. The opposing party may win those few districts where its voters are concentrated by huge margins, but the size of its victories is irrelevant. Whether it wins a district with 51 percent of the vote or 99 percent of the vote, it still gains control over only that one district. All those surplus votes exceeding 51 percent might have been better used to win other districts.

Let's see how gerrymandering by Republicans affected the 2012 election. As a result of the Republican landslide in 2010, the GOP found itself in control of both the legislatures and the governor's office in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. So Republicans used that power to draw political boundaries which would be favorable to the GOP in the 2012 election.

Did it work? Obama beat Romney 54.3 percent to 44.8 percent in Michigan, almost 10 points. So, in the presidential election, Michigan stayed blue. Gerrymandering didn't work.

Not so fast. A state boundary is a state boundary. Gerrymandering can't change state boundaries. But it can change legislative and congressional districts within that state, in this case Michigan. In legislative races in Michigan, Democrats received 347,630 more votes overall than Republicans, nevertheless, the GOP won 59 districts and Democrats only 51. Gerrymandering by the GOP worked.

In congressional contests in Michigan, Democrats got 241,181 more votes overall than Republicans, but the GOP won 9 congressional seats and Democrats only 5. GOP gerrymandering worked again.

What about Wisconsin? Obama won the state getting 52.8 percent of the vote to Romney's 46.1 percent, almost a 7 percent victory for Obama. And Democratic candidates for Congress received 43,319 more votes overall than Republicans. But, because of GOP gerrymandering, Republicans won 5 congressional seats and Democrats only 3.

Did the same thing happen in Pennsylvania? Obama got 52.0 percent of the vote, Romney only 46.8 percent. Obama won Pennsylvania by about 5 points. And Democratic congressional candidates got 84,008 more votes overall than their Republican opponents. Yet, due to gerrymandering, Republicans won 13 congressional seats; Democrats only 5.

It might be argued that either party can gerrymander political boundaries when it finds itself in control of the redistricting process. However, a light bulb went on in some Republican brains when they saw how well gerrymandering helped them gain legislative and congressional majorities in states where they lost the popular vote. As a result, some Republicans are preparing to do something which no party has dared to attempt - gerrymander the presidential election.

Here's how presidential gerrymandering would work. A presidential candidate would get one electoral vote for each congressional district that person won in the state and two more for winning the popular vote there. Republicans would gerrymander the process by drawing congressional boundaries favorable to the GOP much as they did in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in the 2012 election.

According to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, if electoral votes in each of the 50 states were determined by this system which allows gerrymandering, Mitt Romney would have won the 2012 presidential election 276 electoral votes to 262 for Obama, despite losing the nationwide popular vote to Obama by almost 3 million votes.

And this movement toward a gerrymandered presidential election could be initiated in any state where the GOP controls both the legislature and the governorship.

You know what I would like to see? I would like to see Republicans conduct a fair election for a change. No Republican attempts at voter suppression of Democratic constituencies (the poor, elderly, the handicapped, minorities, and students) by the use of photo IDs. No Republicans attempts to suppress Democratic votes by reducing early voting. No Republican attempts to gerrymander political districts.

Instead, just have Republican candidates stand up and frankly tell voters what their party stands for. Hmm, I think I see the problem. When faced with the unvarnished truth, voters won't support Republicans. So, I expect this isn't the last we will see of political tricks by the GOP.

Note: This blog has relied heavily on statistical data provided by TRMS (12/12/2012).

Larry Quinn

4:38 pm on Monday, December 31, 2012

To the victor go the spoils, no matter who that victor might be. And lots of "facts and figures" (my quotes) impress we voters. But so what? We still have a divided electorate and a challenged (in terms of accomplishment and compromise) congress, so where does all that leave us? In deep..., I think!

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Seamus Carty

5:11 pm on Monday, December 31, 2012

And the proof of gerrymandering in Michigan and Wisconsin would be what? Any research? Any evidence?

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David Pittelli

8:26 am on Wednesday, January 2, 2013

The gerrymandering is real enough. Of course, Democrats gerrymandered in Illinois, Maryland and California, something oddly not mentioned in this totally unbiased article.

Jan Schmidt

9:08 am on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

I hope you don't mind Gary, I've added an image that illustrates the effect of gerrymandering on the integrity of our "fair representation".

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Patriot

10:38 am on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

"Fair representation!"
Jan come on! Really? Gerrymandering as apposed to Presidential influence, none of it matters after the election is over. But should someone have nothing better to do than spin numbers, go for it.
We can also run numbers on finance, the use of the Presidential seal and all the power that can bring. When did you see a former president campaign as hard as Clinton? So many tactics where employed to help the winner why opt to criticize "Gerrymandering?"
*
Happy New Year!!!!!!!

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Jan Schmidt

11:00 am on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

According to ThinkProgress, 53,952,240 votes were cast for Democratic candidates, while Republican candidates received 53,402,643. However, thanks in part to redistricting, Republicans will hold more than half the seats in the House while receiving less than half of overall votes.

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Patriot

11:58 am on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

I can't argue with the numbers. But like politicians, numbers misrepresent the facts.
*
Chicago is just a little different than Anchorage. The slums are different than Silicon Valley and that is why I take no stock in numbers. If you had listened to the talking heads, Romney was going to crush Obama. No so!
If you are having a problem sleeping this is great material to read.

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salemvoter

12:09 pm on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Two informative articles that claim gerrymandering is only PART of the story.
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2012/12/03/121203taco_talk_hertzberg?printable=true

"For one party to win a majority of House seats with a minority of votes is a relatively rare occurrence. It has now happened five times in the past hundred years. In 1914 and 1942, the Democrats were the beneficiaries. In 1952, 1996, and this year, it was the Republicans’ turn to get lucky, and their luck is likely to hold for many election cycles to come. Gerrymandering routinely gets blamed for such mismatches, but that’s only part of the story. Far more important than redistricting is just plain districting: because so many Democrats are city folk, large numbers of Democratic votes pile up redundantly in overwhelmingly one-sided districts"

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Jan Schmidt

11:04 am on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Agreed. For President... one person, one vote.

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Steve From NH

1:05 pm on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Would've been a President Gore, and a different world....

ForThePeople

1:33 pm on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

The only thing that could have made this article better would be to discuss the gerrymandering that occurred right here in Concord.

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Patriot

1:53 pm on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

ForThePeople, it really worked Uh?

Patriot

1:56 pm on Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Tough to sell a snowmobile in Florida.

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Atlant Schmidt

8:01 am on Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Ahh, a personal attack as rebuttal! Well played!

Mike Healey

9:02 am on Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Gerrymandering by either party promotes super partisan representation which destroys the chances for honest political compromise.

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Patriot

9:17 am on Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Mike we are talking politics, right?
Reminds me of a cartoon where several people fought for the steering wheel until the steering wheel broke. Everyone was left with the out of control vehicle which crashed!

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Patriot

9:20 am on Wednesday, January 2, 2013

We are talking about an election that is over and a system no one wants to change. I hate to think it, but we went over the cliff long ago!

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One Man Wolf Pack

10:50 am on Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Funny thing is that 'Gerrymandering" has its roots in the Democratic party........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

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essay

11:29 am on Thursday, January 3, 2013

FYI: the Democratic party of today is not the same party as it was in the 19th century.

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One Man Wolf Pack

12:48 pm on Thursday, January 3, 2013

No I am sure they have invented far more ways to accomplish the same goals.......always the progressive pinoneers for news ways of doing things. Then when others do then it is not fair......

And no they are not the same.....they ditched thier republican memebrs in a party split since then so I am sure it is worse.

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